In this paper, we propose an original empirical investigation of the long-run versus short-run impacts of climate change on the Tunisian agricultural sector. Using an original regional database, we apply the panel cointegration tests and estimation of Pedroni (Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics S1 61:653-670, 1999; Review of Economics and Statistics 89:727-731, 2001) to estimate the long-run effects. We find that an increased annual temperature decreases both cereal and date productions, with an exception in highland areas. In addition, the annual rainfall has a positive effect on cereals, but rain shortages in the south affect production negatively in this region. The short-run climate effects are smaller than the long-run effects. The rainfall has a weak positive effect that is counterbalanced by the threat of brutal temperature increases over the last decades. This paper calls for the implementation of a public policy privileging and subsidizing the threatened areas. Adaptation measures should include the implementation of a water demand management system that promotes using scarce water resources more efficiently. Moreover, policy makers should seriously consider encouraging the development of drought-tolerant crops, especially in the south of Tunisia where global warming has caused a severe drought. In the north of Tunisia, adaptation measures may include choosing tree species and forestry practices less vulnerable to storms and fires, especially in Jendouba, the forestry region of Tunisia.
- Climate change impacts
- Date and cereal crops
- Panel cointegration
- Error correction model
- RANDOM FLUCTUATIONS
- US AGRICULTURE
- HETEROGENEOUS PANELS
- RICARDIAN ANALYSIS
- POTENTIAL IMPACT
[Ben Zaied, Younes] Univ Paris 13, CEPN CNRS, UFR Sci Econ, F-93430 Paris, France; [Ben Zaied, Younes] Univ Rennes 1, LAREQUAD, F-35065 Rennes, France; [Ben Zaied, Younes] Univ Rennes 1, CREM, F-35065 Rennes, France; [Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine] PRES UNAM, ESSCA Sch Management, F-49000 Angers, France
Ben Zaied, Y (reprint author), Univ Paris 13, CEPN CNRS, UFR Sci Econ, 99 Ave Jean Baptiste Clement, F-93430 Paris, France.
- Centre d'économie de Paris Nord (CEPN), UMR7234
- Centre de Recherche en Economie et Management (CREM), UMR6211