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Title

Assessing the effects of climate change on the phenology of European temperate trees

Publication Year

2011

Author(s)
  • Vitasse, Yann
  • Francois, Christophe
  • Delpierre, Nicolas
  • Dufrene, Eric
  • Kremer, Antoine
  • Chuine, Isabelle
  • Delzon, Sylvain
Source
AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY Volume: 151 Issue: 7 Pages: 969-980 Published: 2011
ISSN
0168-1923
Abstract

Modelling phenology is crucial to assess the impact of climate change on the length of the canopy duration and the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems. Focusing on six dominant European tree species, the aims of this study were (i) to examine the accuracy of different leaf phenology models to simulate the onset and ending of the leafy season, with particular emphasis on the putative role of chilling to release winter bud dormancy and (ii) to predict seasonal shifts for the 21st century in response to climate warming. Models testing and validation were done for each species considering 2 or 3 years of phenological observations acquired over a large elevational gradient (1500 m range, 57 populations). Flushing models were either based solely on forcing temperatures (1-phase models) or both on chilling and forcing temperatures (2-phases models). Leaf senescence models were based on both temperature and photoperiod. We show that most flushing models are able to predict accurately the observed flushing dates. The 1-phase models are as efficient as 2-phases models for most species suggesting that chilling temperatures are currently sufficient to fully release bud dormancy. However, our predictions for the 21st century highlight that chilling temperature could be insufficient for some species at low elevation. Overall, flushing is expected to advance in the next decades but this trend substantially differed between species (from 0 to 2.4 days per decade). The prediction of leaf senescence appears more challenging, as the proposed models work properly for only two out of four deciduous species, for which senescence is expected to be delayed in the future (from 1.4 to 2.3 days per decade). These trends to earlier spring leafing and later autumn senescence are likely to affect the competitive balance between species. For instance, simulations over the 21st century predict a stronger lengthening of the canopy duration for Quercus petraea than for Fagus sylvatica. suggesting that shifts in the elevational distributions of these species might occur. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Author Keyword(s)
  • Climate change
  • Phenological models
  • Canopy duration
  • Forest
  • Elevational gradient
KeyWord(s) Plus
  • GROWING-SEASON
  • SPRING PHENOLOGY
  • DORMANCY RELEASE
  • BUD DORMANCY
  • DECIDUOUS FOREST
  • LEAF SENESCENCE
  • SPECIES RANGE
  • CARBON UPTAKE
  • THERMAL TIME
  • BUDBURST
ESI Discipline(s)
  • Agricultural Sciences
  • Geosciences
  • Plant & Animal Science
Web of Science Category(ies)
  • Agronomy
  • Forestry
  • Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Adress(es)

[Vitasse, Yann; Delzon, Sylvain] Univ Bordeaux, UMR BIOGECO 1202, F-33405 Talence, France; [Francois, Christophe; Delpierre, Nicolas; Dufrene, Eric] Univ Paris 11, UMR ESE 8079, F-91405 Orsay, France; [Francois, Christophe; Dufrene, Eric] CNRS, F-91405 Orsay, France; [Kremer, Antoine] INRA, UMR BIOGECO 1202, F-33612 Cestas, France; [Chuine, Isabelle] CNRS, Equipe BIOFLUX, UMR 5175, Ctr Ecol Fonct & Evolut, F-34293 Montpellier, France

Reprint Adress

Vitasse, Y (reprint author), Univ Bordeaux, UMR BIOGECO 1202, Av Fac, F-33405 Talence, France.

Country(ies)
  • France
CNRS - Adress(es)
  • Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), UMR5175
  • Ecologie, systématique et évolution (ESE), UMR8079
Accession Number
WOS:000291283300021
uid:/XDVL21L2
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