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Title

Climate Change in the Subtropics: the Impacts of Projected Averages and Variability on Banana Productivity

Publication Year

2012

Author(s)
  • Van den Bergh, I.
  • Ramirez, J.
  • Staver, C.
  • Turner, D. W.
  • Jarvis, A.
  • Brown, D.
Conference
28th International Horticultural Congress on Science and Horticulture for People (IHC) / International Symposium on Citrus, Bananas and Other Tropical Fruits Under Subtropical Conditions Date: AUG 22-27, 2010 Location: Lisbon, PORTUGAL
Source
XXVIII INTERNATIONAL HORTICULTURAL CONGRESS ON SCIENCE AND HORTICULTURE FOR PEOPLE (IHC2010): INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON CITRUS, BANANAS AND OTHER TROPICAL FRUITS UNDER SUBTROPICAL CONDITIONS Bokk Series: Acta Horticulturae Volume: 928 Pages: 89-99 Published: 2012
ISSN
0567-7572
Abstract

The potential for bananas to produce year round is best expressed when water is abundant and daily temperatures are in the range of 20-30 degrees C. Zones with these conditions produce fruit for the global market. However, banana production, mainly for national markets, has developed in many subtropical areas under less than optimum conditions. Bananas are an important cash crop in southern Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina, in countries of North Africa, the Middle East and southern Africa, and in China and northern India. In these regions, bananas are subject to sub-optimum temperatures and short days. Highly favorable temperatures and long days in the summer may also include short periods of extreme temperatures above 35 degrees C, while rainfall is also highly variable. The effects of climate change on selected subtropical production areas were modeled in a two-step procedure using the EcoCrop model, under current growing conditions and for 2020 and 2050 using a set of 19 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Global Climate Models (GCMs) under the SRES-A2 (business as usual) emission scenario. The modeling showed that current suitability for banana production in the subtropics is much lower than in the tropics with great variation in suitability within the subtropics. Of nine subtropical regions considered, two have improved conditions by 2020s, four are largely unaffected and three have a lower suitability. Our analysis also showed that, in terms of environmental conditions, certain sites are widely represented globally, offering options for technology transfer between sites. Other sites have few similar sites, which means that sites need to be carefully selected for approaches to technology development and transfer. The study leveraged site-specific information with widely available tools to understand potential effects of climate change in the subtropics. However, in order to fully understand the impacts of climate change on banana, the modeling tools used here need to be fully suited for semi-perennial crops to capture the effects of seasonal temperature and rainfall variability on crop cycle length and potential yields.

Author Keyword(s)
  • Musa spp.
  • temperature
  • rainfall
  • global climate models
  • EcoCrop model
  • homoclimes
  • climate scenarios
KeyWord(s) Plus
    ESI Discipline(s)
    • Agricultural Sciences
    • Plant & Animal Science
    Web of Science Category(ies)
    • Horticulture
    Adress(es)

    [Van den Bergh, I.; Staver, C.] Biovers Int, Montpellier, France

    Reprint Adress

    Van den Bergh, I (reprint author), Biovers Int, Montpellier, France.

    Country(ies)
    • France
    CNRS - Adress(es)
      Accession Number
      WOS:000314950000009
      uid:/T3F4GB2B
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