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Title

Nut crop yield records show that budbreak-based chilling requirements may not reflect yield decline chill thresholds

Publication Year

2015

Author(s)
  • Pope, Katherine S.
  • Dose, Volker
  • Da Silva, David
  • Brown, Patrick H.
  • DeJong, Theodore M.
Source
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY Volume: 59 Issue: 6 Pages: 707-715 Published: 2015
ISSN
0020-7128 eISSN: 1432-1254
Abstract

Warming winters due to climate change may critically affect temperate tree species. Insufficiently cold winters are thought to result in fewer viable flower buds and the subsequent development of fewer fruits or nuts, decreasing the yield of an orchard or fecundity of a species. The best existing approximation for a threshold of sufficient cold accumulation, the chilling requirement of a species or variety, has been quantified by manipulating or modeling the conditions that result in dormant bud breaking. However, the physiological processes that affect budbreak are not the same as those that determine yield. This study sought to test whether budbreak-based chilling thresholds can reasonably approximate the thresholds that affect yield, particularly regarding the potential impacts of climate change on temperate tree crop yields. County-wide yield records for almond (Prunus dulcis), pistachio (Pistacia vera), and walnut (Juglans regia) in the Central Valley of California were compared with 50 years of weather records. Bayesian nonparametric function estimation was used to model yield potentials at varying amounts of chill accumulation. In almonds, average yields occurred when chill accumulation was close to the budbreak-based chilling requirement. However, in the other two crops, pistachios and walnuts, the best previous estimate of the budbreak-based chilling requirements was 19-32 % higher than the chilling accumulations associated with average or above average yields. This research indicates that physiological processes beyond requirements for budbreak should be considered when estimating chill accumulation thresholds of yield decline and potential impacts of climate change.

Author Keyword(s)
  • Chilling requirement
  • Climate change
  • Yield
  • Bloom
  • Budbreak
  • Bayesian
KeyWord(s) Plus
  • HEAT REQUIREMENTS
  • ALMOND CULTIVARS
  • DYNAMIC-MODEL
  • FRUIT-TREES
  • PEACH-TREES
  • TEMPERATURE
  • DORMANCY
  • BUDS
  • PHENOLOGY
  • BREAKING
ESI Discipline(s)
  • Biology & Biochemistry
  • Clinical Medicine
  • Environment/Ecology
  • Geosciences
Web of Science Category(ies)
  • Biophysics
  • Environmental Sciences
  • Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
  • Physiology
Adress(es)

[Pope, Katherine S.; Brown, Patrick H.; DeJong, Theodore M.] Univ Calif Davis, Dept Plant Sci, Davis, CA 95695 USA; [Dose, Volker] EURATOM, Max Planck Inst Plasmaphys, Garching, Germany; [Da Silva, David] INRA, UMR Plant Genet Improvement & Adapt AGAP 1334, F-34060 Montpellier, France

Reprint Adress

Pope, KS (reprint author), Univ Calif Davis, Dept Plant Sci, 70 Cottonwood St, Davis, CA 95695 USA.

Country(ies)
  • France
  • Germany
  • United States
CNRS - Adress(es)
    Accession Number
    WOS:000355337300004
    uid:/Q814VLS1
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