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Title

Modelling climate-change effects on Australian and Pacific aquatic ecosystems: a review of analytical tools and management implications

Publication Year

2011

Author(s)
  • Plaganyi, Eva E.
  • Bell, Johann D.
  • Bustamante, Rodrigo H.
  • Dambacher, Jeffrey M.
  • Dennis, Darren M.
  • Dichmont, Cathy M.
  • Dutra, Leo X. C.
  • Fulton, Elizabeth A.
  • Hobday, Alistair J.
  • van Putten, E. Ingrid
  • Smith, Franz
  • Smith, Anthony D. M.
  • Zhou, Shijie
Source
MARINE AND FRESHWATER RESEARCH Volume: 62 Issue: 9 Pages: 1132-1147 Published: 2011
ISSN
1323-1650
Abstract

Climate change presents significant challenges to modelling and managing aquatic resources. Equilibrium assumptions common in many modelling approaches need to be replaced by formulations that allow for changing baselines and integration of ongoing changes and adaptations by species, ecosystems and humans. As ecosystems change, so will the ways humans use, monitor and manage them. Consequently, adaptive management loops and supporting tools deserve more prominence in the management toolbox. Models are critical tools for providing an early understanding of the challenges to be faced by integrating observations and examining possible solutions. We review modelling tools currently available to incorporate the effect of climate change on marine and freshwater ecosystems, and the implications for management of natural resources. System non-linearity can confound interpretations and hence adaptive management responses are needed that are robust to unexpected outcomes. An improvement in the ability to model the effects of climate change from a social and economic perspective is necessary. The outputs from 'end-to-end' and socio-ecological models can potentially inform planning, in both Australia and the Pacific region, about how best to build resilience to climate change. In this context, the importance of well directed data-collection programs is also emphasised. Lessons from this region, which is advanced with regard to modelling approaches, can guide increased use of models to test options for managing aquatic resources worldwide.

Author Keyword(s)
  • adaptive management
  • Australian fisheries
  • ecosystem models
  • end-to-end models
  • Pacific Island countries and territories
  • qualitative models
  • socioeconomics
KeyWord(s) Plus
  • GREAT-BARRIER-REEF
  • QUALITATIVE RISK-ASSESSMENT
  • FISHING EFFECTS SAFE
  • NEW-SOUTH-WALES
  • TO-END MODELS
  • FISHERIES-MANAGEMENT
  • MARINE ECOSYSTEMS
  • TRAWL FISHERY
  • SUSTAINABILITY ASSESSMENT
  • COMMUNITY STRUCTURE
ESI Discipline(s)
  • Environment/Ecology
  • Geosciences
  • Plant & Animal Science
Web of Science Category(ies)
  • Fisheries
  • Limnology
  • Marine & Freshwater Biology
  • Oceanography
Adress(es)

[Plaganyi, Eva E.; Bustamante, Rodrigo H.; Dennis, Darren M.; Dichmont, Cathy M.; Dutra, Leo X. C.; Zhou, Shijie] CMAR, CSIRO Wealth Ocean Flagship, Brisbane, Qld 4001, Australia; [Bell, Johann D.] Secretariat Pacific Community, Noumea 98848, New Caledonia; [Bustamante, Rodrigo H.; Smith, Franz] CMAR, CSIRO Climate Adaptat Flagship, Brisbane, Qld 4001, Australia; [Dambacher, Jeffrey M.] CSIRO Math Informat & Stat, Hobart, Tas 7001, Australia; [Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Hobday, Alistair J.; van Putten, E. Ingrid; Smith, Anthony D. M.] CMAR, CSIRO Wealth Ocean Flagship, Hobart, Tas 7001, Australia; [Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Hobday, Alistair J.] CMAR, CSIRO Climate Adaptat Flagship, Hobart, Tas 7001, Australia

Reprint Adress

Plaganyi, EE (reprint author), CMAR, CSIRO Wealth Ocean Flagship, GPO Box 2583, Brisbane, Qld 4001, Australia.

Country(ies)
  • Australia
  • France
CNRS - Adress(es)
    Accession Number
    WOS:000295083900011
    uid:/P1F31PBW
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