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Title

Ensemble modelling of climate change risks and opportunities for managed grasslands in France

Publication Year

2013

Author(s)
  • Graux, Anne-Isabelle
  • Bellocchi, Gianni
  • Lardy, Romain
  • Soussana, Jean-Francois
Source
AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY Volume: 170 Pages: 114-131 Published: 2013
ISSN
0168-1923 eISSN: 1873-2240
Abstract

The Pasture Simulation model (PaSim) was used to simulate agronomic and environmental services at 12 grassland sites in France, comparing near past climate conditions (1970-1999) and projections for near (2020-2049) and far future (2070-2099). Modelled climate change impacts were assessed using statistical and threshold-based analysis on managed (intensive, extensive) grasslands (permanent, sown), comparing shallow and deep soils, and for an ensemble of emission scenarios, climate models, and downscaling/initialization methods. Results show a significant drift of all sites towards more arid climates by the end of the century. Significant reductions in annual water drainage and herbage protein content are projected, together with new opportunities for annual and seasonal herbage production, in spring and winter especially. Simulated future conditions also show an increased interannual and seasonal variability of production. Contrary to expectations, current natural conditions reflecting large water availability are not expected to reduce future risks of negative climate change impacts on grassland systems. Notably, milk production from aftermath grazing of permanent grasslands established on deep soils at Mirecourt (humid site) is estimated to fall down below one-third of the current median value in four out of 30 years (similar to 13%) for 2070-2099, whereas similar shortfalls were not observed with the baseline climate. Balancing risks and opportunities, permanent extensive grasslands can be viewed as a trade-off between the continuity of grassland service provision and the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. (C) 2012 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Author Keyword(s)
  • Climate change
  • Grassland services
  • Greenhouse gas (GHG)
  • Pasture Simulation model (PaSim)
  • Risk assessment
KeyWord(s) Plus
  • AIR CO2 ENRICHMENT
  • ELEVATED ATMOSPHERIC CO2
  • PASTURE SIMULATION-MODEL
  • SYMBIOTIC N-2 FIXATION
  • WATER-USE
  • TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS
  • MEDITERRANEAN AREAS
  • POTENTIAL IMPACT
  • DROUGHT SURVIVAL
  • WHEAT PRODUCTION
ESI Discipline(s)
  • Agricultural Sciences
  • Geosciences
  • Plant & Animal Science
Web of Science Category(ies)
  • Agronomy
  • Forestry
  • Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Adress(es)

[Graux, Anne-Isabelle; Bellocchi, Gianni; Lardy, Romain; Soussana, Jean-Francois] INRA, UR0874, Grassland Ecosyst Res Unit, F-63100 Clermont Ferrand, France

Reprint Adress

Graux, AI (reprint author), INRA, UR0874, Grassland Ecosyst Res Unit, 234 Ave Brezet, F-63100 Clermont Ferrand, France.

Country(ies)
  • France
CNRS - Adress(es)
    Accession Number
    WOS:000315546700012
    uid:/J67G3C90
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