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Title

Additive effects of climate change on connectivity between marine protected areas and larval supply to fished areas

Publication Year

2015

Author(s)
  • Andrello, Marco
  • Mouillot, David
  • Somot, Samuel
  • Thuiller, Wilfried
  • Manel, Stephanie
Source
DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS Volume: 21 Issue: 2 Pages: 139-150 Published: 2015
ISSN
1366-9516 eISSN: 1472-4642
Abstract

AimTo study the combined effects of climate change on connectivity between marine protected areas (MPAs) and larval supply to the continental shelf. LocationThe Mediterranean Sea, where sea surface temperatures are expected to strongly increase by the end of the 21st century, represents an archetypal situation with a dense MPA network but resource overexploitation outside. MethodsUsing an individual-based mechanistic model of larval transport, forced with an emission-driven regional climate change scenario for the Mediterranean Sea, we explored the combined effects of changes in hydrodynamics, adult reproductive timing and larval dispersal on the connectivity among MPAs and their ability to seed fished areas with larvae. ResultsWe show that, over the period 1970-2099, larval dispersal distances would decrease by 10%, the continental shelf area seeded with larvae would decrease by 3% and the larval retention fraction would increase by 5%, resulting in higher concentration of larvae in smaller areas of the continental shelf. However, connectance within the MPA network would increase by 5% as more northern MPAs would become suitable for reproduction with increasing temperatures. We also show that the effects of changes in adult reproductive timing and larval dispersal on connectivity patterns are additive. Main conclusionsClimate change will influence connectivity and the effectiveness of MPA networks, and should receive more attention in future conservation planning and large-scale population dynamics.

Author Keyword(s)
  • Biophysical model
  • conservation planning
  • Epinephelus marginatus
  • larval dispersal
  • larval growth rate
  • reproductive timing
KeyWord(s) Plus
  • GROUPER EPINEPHELUS-MARGINATUS
  • WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA
  • DUSKY GROUPER
  • POPULATION CONNECTIVITY
  • PISCES SERRANIDAE
  • RESERVE NETWORKS
  • CORAL-REEFS
  • CONSERVATION
  • DISPERSAL
  • BIODIVERSITY
ESI Discipline(s)
  • Environment/Ecology
Web of Science Category(ies)
  • Biodiversity Conservation
  • Ecology
Adress(es)

[Andrello, Marco; Manel, Stephanie] Aix Marseille Univ, IRD, LPED UMR 151, Marseille, France; [Andrello, Marco; Thuiller, Wilfried] Univ Grenoble Alpes, LECA, F-38000 Grenoble, France; [Andrello, Marco; Thuiller, Wilfried] CNRS, LECA, F-38000 Grenoble, France; [Mouillot, David] Univ Montpellier 2, UMR Ecol Syst Marins Cotiers 5119, F-34095 Montpellier 5, France; [Mouillot, David] James Cook Univ, ARC Ctr Excellence Coral Reef Studies, Townsville, Qld 4811, Australia; [Somot, Samuel] Meteo France, CNRM, GAME, F-31057 Toulouse, France; [Manel, Stephanie] Ctr Cooperat Int Rech Agron Dev, UMR AMAP, Montpellier, France

Reprint Adress

Andrello, M (reprint author), Aix Marseille Univ, IRD, LPED UMR 151, Marseille, France.

Country(ies)
  • Australia
  • France
CNRS - Adress(es)
  • Botanique et modélisation de l'architecture des plantes et des végétations (AMAP), UMR5120
  • Ecologie des systèmes marins côtiers (ECOSYM), UMR5119
  • Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (GAME), URA1357
  • Laboratoire d'écologie alpine (LECA), UMR5553
Accession Number
WOS:000347462900002
uid:/HHRBN628
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