LODEX : sémantisation & visualisation

Site exemple

Title

Why Would Plant Species Become Extinct Locally If Growing Conditions Improve?

Publication Year

2012

Author(s)
  • Kramer, Koen
  • Bijlsma, Rienk-Jan
  • Hickler, Thomas
  • Thuiller, Wilfried
Source
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES Volume: 8 Issue: 8 Pages: 1121-1129 Published: 2012
ISSN
1449-2288
Abstract

Two assumptions underlie current models of the geographical ranges of perennial plant species: 1. current ranges are in equilibrium with the prevailing climate, and 2. changes are attributable to changes in macroclimatic factors, including tolerance of winter cold, the duration of the growing season, and water stress during the growing season, rather than to biotic interactions. These assumptions allow model parameters to be estimated from current species ranges. Deterioration of growing conditions due to climate change, e.g. more severe drought, will cause local extinction. However, for many plant species, the predicted climate change of higher minimum temperatures and longer growing seasons means, improved growing conditions. Biogeographical models may under some circumstances predict that a species will become locally extinct, despite improved growing conditions, because they are based on an assumption of equilibrium and this forces the species range to match the species-specific macroclimatic thresholds. We argue that such model predictions should be rejected unless there is evidence either that competition influences the position of the range margins or that a certain physiological mechanism associated with the apparent improvement in growing conditions negatively affects the species performance. We illustrate how a process-based vegetation model can be used to ascertain whether such a physiological cause exists. To avoid potential modelling errors of this type, we propose a method that constrains the scenario predictions of the envelope models by changing the geographical distribution of the dominant plant functional type. Consistent modelling results are very important for evaluating how changes in species areas affect local functional trait diversity and hence ecosystem functioning and resilience, and for inferring the implications for conservation management in the face of climate change.

Author Keyword(s)
  • plant species
  • climate
  • biogeographical models
KeyWord(s) Plus
  • GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL-CHANGE
  • CLIMATE-CHANGE
  • GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTIONS
  • VEGETATION DYNAMICS
  • MODEL
  • RANGE
  • ECOSYSTEMS
  • RESPONSES
  • GROWTH
  • PRODUCTIVITY
ESI Discipline(s)
  • Biology & Biochemistry
  • Molecular Biology & Genetics
Web of Science Category(ies)
  • Biochemistry & Molecular Biology
  • Biology
Adress(es)

[Kramer, Koen; Bijlsma, Rienk-Jan] Wageningen Univ & Res Ctr, Alterra, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands; [Hickler, Thomas] Goethe Univ Frankfurt, Dept Phys Geog, Biodivers & Climate Res Ctr, Frankfurt, Germany; [Thuiller, Wilfried] Univ Grenoble 1, CNRS, UMR 5553, Lab Ecol Alpine, F-38041 Grenoble 9, France

Reprint Adress

Kramer, K (reprint author), Wageningen Univ & Res Ctr, Alterra, POB 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands.

Country(ies)
  • France
  • Germany
  • Netherlands
CNRS - Adress(es)
  • Laboratoire d'écologie alpine (LECA), UMR5553
Accession Number
WOS:000310055600004
uid:/DD2T58QD
Powered by Lodex 8.18.5