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Title

Projected changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean of importance to tuna fisheries

Publication Year

2013

Author(s)
  • Ganachaud, Alexandre
  • Sen Gupta, Alexander
  • Brown, Jaclyn N.
  • Evans, Karen
  • Maes, Christophe
  • Muir, Les C.
  • Graham, Felicity S.
Source
CLIMATIC CHANGE Volume: 119 Issue: 1 Pages: 163-179 Published: 2013
ISSN
0165-0009
Abstract

Future physical and chemical changes to the ocean are likely to significantly affect the distribution and productivity of many marine species. Tuna are of particular importance in the tropical Pacific, as they contribute significantly to the livelihoods, food and economic security of island states. Changes in water properties and circulation will impact on tuna larval dispersal, preferred habitat distributions and the trophic systems that support tuna populations throughout the region. Using recent observations and ocean projections from the CMIP3 and preliminary results from CMIP5 climate models, we document the projected changes to ocean temperature, salinity, stratification and circulation most relevant to distributions of tuna. Under a business-as-usual emission scenario, projections indicate a surface intensified warming in the upper 400 m and a large expansion of the western Pacific Warm Pool, with most surface waters of the central and western equatorial Pacific reaching temperatures warmer than 29 degrees C by 2100. These changes are likely to alter the preferred habitat of tuna, based on present-day thermal tolerances, and in turn the distribution of spawning and foraging grounds. Large-scale shoaling of the mixed layer and increases in stratification are expected to impact nutrient provision to the biologically active layer, with flow-on trophic effects on the micronekton. Several oceanic currents are projected to change, including a strengthened upper equatorial undercurrent, which could modify the supply of bioavailable iron to the eastern Pacific.

Author Keyword(s)
    KeyWord(s) Plus
    • WESTERN PACIFIC
    • CLIMATE-CHANGE
    • WARM POOL
    • EL-NINO
    • MODELS
    ESI Discipline(s)
    • Environment/Ecology
    • Geosciences
    Web of Science Category(ies)
    • Environmental Sciences
    • Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
    Adress(es)

    [Ganachaud, Alexandre; Maes, Christophe] IRD, UMR5566, LEGOS, Noumea, New Caledonia; [Ganachaud, Alexandre; Maes, Christophe] UPS OMP PCA, LEGOS, Toulouse, France; [Sen Gupta, Alexander] Univ New S Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW, Australia; [Sen Gupta, Alexander] Univ New S Wales, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Syst Sci, Sydney, NSW, Australia; [Brown, Jaclyn N.; Evans, Karen; Muir, Les C.; Graham, Felicity S.] CSIRO Marine & Atmospher Res, Wealth Oceans Natl Res Flagship, Hobart, Tas, Australia

    Reprint Adress

    Ganachaud, A (reprint author), IRD, UMR5566, LEGOS, BP A5, Noumea, New Caledonia.

    Country(ies)
    • Australia
    • France
    CNRS - Adress(es)
    • Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS), UMR5566
    • Observatoire midi-Pyrénées (OMP), UMS831
    Accession Number
    WOS:000321953700013
    uid:/CNKKBVJD
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