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Title

Multiyear predictability of tropical marine productivity

Publication Year

2014

Author(s)
  • Seferian, Roland
  • Bopp, Laurent
  • Gehlen, Marion
  • Swingedouw, Didier
  • Mignot, Juliette
  • Guilyardi, Eric
  • Servonnat, Jerome
Source
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Volume: 111 Issue: 32 Pages: 11646-11651 Published: 2014
ISSN
0027-8424
Abstract

With the emergence of decadal predictability simulations, research toward forecasting variations of the climate system now covers a large range of timescales. However, assessment of the capacity to predict natural variations of relevant biogeochemical variables like carbon fluxes, pH, or marine primary productivity remains unexplored. Among these, the net primary productivity (NPP) is of particular relevance in a forecasting perspective. Indeed, in regions like the tropical Pacific (30 degrees N-30 degrees S), NPP exhibits natural fluctuations at interannual to decadal timescales that have large impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries. Here, we investigate predictions of NPP variations over the last decades (i.e., from 1997 to 2011) with an Earth system model within the tropical Pacific. Results suggest a predictive skill for NPP of 3 y, which is higher than that of sea surface temperature (1 y). We attribute the higher predictability of NPP to the poleward advection of nutrient anomalies (nitrate and iron), which sustain fluctuations in phytoplankton productivity over several years. These results open previously unidentified perspectives to the development of science-based management approaches to marine resources relying on integrated physical-biogeochemical forecasting systems.

Author Keyword(s)
  • forecast
  • ecosystem management
  • marine biogeochemistry
KeyWord(s) Plus
  • SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE
  • EQUATORIAL PACIFIC
  • INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY
  • CLIMATE
  • OCEAN
  • ATLANTIC
  • DISTRIBUTIONS
  • SALINITY
  • NITROGEN
  • MODEL
ESI Discipline(s)
  • Multidisciplinary
Web of Science Category(ies)
  • Multidisciplinary Sciences
Adress(es)

[Seferian, Roland] Ctr Natl Rech Meteorol, Grp Meteorol Grande Echelle & Climat, Grp Etude Atmosphere Meteorol, F-31100 Toulouse, France; [Seferian, Roland; Bopp, Laurent; Gehlen, Marion; Swingedouw, Didier; Servonnat, Jerome] Inst Pierre Simon Laplace, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France; [Swingedouw, Didier] Univ Bordeaux, F-33615 Pessac, France; [Mignot, Juliette; Guilyardi, Eric] Inst Pierre Simon Laplace, Lab Oceanog & Climat Expt & Approches, F-75252 Paris, France; [Mignot, Juliette] Univ Bern, Climate & Environm Phys Phys Inst, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland; [Mignot, Juliette] Univ Bern, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland; [Guilyardi, Eric] Univ Reading, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci Climate, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England; [Guilyardi, Eric] Univ Reading, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci Climate, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England

Reprint Adress

Seferian, R (reprint author), Ctr Natl Rech Meteorol, Grp Meteorol Grande Echelle & Climat, Grp Etude Atmosphere Meteorol, F-31100 Toulouse, France.

Country(ies)
  • France
  • Switzerland
  • United Kingdom
CNRS - Adress(es)
  • Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (GAME), UMR3589
  • Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), FR636
  • Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), UMR7159
  • Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l'environnement (LSCE), UMR8212
Accession Number
WOS:000340097900029
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