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Title

Forecasting changes in population genetic structure of alpine plants in response to global warming

Publication Year

2012

Author(s)
  • Jay, Flora
  • Manel, Stephanie
  • Alvarez, Nadir
  • Durand, Eric Y.
  • Thuiller, Wilfried
  • Holderegger, Rolf
  • Taberlet, Pierre
  • Francois, Olivier
Source
MOLECULAR ECOLOGY Volume: 21 Issue: 10 Pages: 2354-2368 Published: 2012
ISSN
0962-1083
Abstract

Species range shifts in response to climate and land use change are commonly forecasted with species distribution models based on species occurrence or abundance data. Although appealing, these models ignore the genetic structure of species, and the fact that different populations might respond in different ways because of adaptation to their environment. Here, we introduced ancestry distribution models, that is, statistical models of the spatial distribution of ancestry proportions, for forecasting intra-specific changes based on genetic admixture instead of species occurrence data. Using multi-locus genotypes and extensive geographic coverage of distribution data across the European Alps, we applied this approach to 20 alpine plant species considering a global increase in temperature from 0.25 to 4 degrees C. We forecasted the magnitudes of displacement of contact zones between plant populations potentially adapted to warmer environments and other populations. While a global trend of movement in a north-east direction was predicted, the magnitude of displacement was species-specific. For a temperature increase of 2 degrees C, contact zones were predicted to move by 92 km on average (minimum of 5 km, maximum of 212 km) and by 188 km for an increase of 4 degrees C (minimum of 11 km, maximum of 393 km). Intra-specific turnovermeasuring the extent of change in global population genetic structurewas generally found to be moderate for 2 degrees C of temperature warming. For 4 degrees C of warming, however, the models indicated substantial intra-specific turnover for ten species. These results illustrate that, in spite of unavoidable simplifications, ancestry distribution models open new perspectives to forecast population genetic changes within species and complement more traditional distribution-based approaches.

Author Keyword(s)
  • Alpine plants
  • ancestry distribution models
  • climate change
  • intra-specific variation
  • landscape genetics
KeyWord(s) Plus
  • LONG-DISTANCE DISPERSAL
  • CLIMATE-CHANGE
  • LANDSCAPE GENETICS
  • LOCAL ADAPTATION
  • MOUNTAIN PLANTS
  • ARABIS-ALPINA
  • BIOLOGICAL INVASIONS
  • MIGRATION RATES
  • CHANGE IMPACTS
  • EUROPEAN ALPS
ESI Discipline(s)
  • Biology & Biochemistry
  • Environment/Ecology
  • Molecular Biology & Genetics
  • Plant & Animal Science
Web of Science Category(ies)
  • Biochemistry & Molecular Biology
  • Ecology
  • Evolutionary Biology
Adress(es)

[Jay, Flora; Francois, Olivier] Univ Grenoble 1, CNRS, TIMC, IMAG,UMR 5525, F-38041 Grenoble, France; [Manel, Stephanie] Aix Marseille Univ, Lab LPED Populat Environm Dev, IRD, UMR151, F-13331 Marseille 3, France; [Manel, Stephanie; Thuiller, Wilfried; Taberlet, Pierre] Univ Grenoble 1, CNRS, Lab Ecol Alpine, UMR 5553, F-38041 Grenoble 9, France; [Alvarez, Nadir] Univ Lausanne, Dept Ecol & Evolut, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland; [Durand, Eric Y.] Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Integrat Biol, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA; [Holderegger, Rolf] WSL Swiss Fed Res Inst, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland

Reprint Adress

Francois, O (reprint author), Univ Grenoble 1, CNRS, TIMC, IMAG,UMR 5525, F-38041 Grenoble, France.

Country(ies)
  • France
  • Switzerland
  • United States
CNRS - Adress(es)
  • Laboratoire d'écologie alpine (LECA), UMR5553
  • Techniques de l'Ingénierie Médicale et de la Complexité - Informatique, Mathématiques et Applications de Grenoble (TIMC-IMAG), UMR5525
Accession Number
WOS:000303388300006
uid:/4228CW82
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