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Title

How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors?

Publication Year

2014

Author(s)
  • Bassu, Simona
  • Brisson, Nadine
  • Durand, Jean-Louis
  • Boote, Kenneth
  • Lizaso, Jon
  • Jones, James W.
  • Rosenzweig, Cynthia
  • Ruane, Alex C.
  • Adam, Myriam
  • Baron, Christian
  • Basso, Bruno
  • Biernath, Christian
  • Boogaard, Hendrik
  • Conijn, Sjaak
  • Corbeels, Marc
  • Deryng, Delphine
  • De Sanctis, Giacomo
  • Gayler, Sebastian
  • Grassini, Patricio
  • Hatfield, Jerry
  • Hoek, Steven
  • Izaurralde, Cesar
  • Jongschaap, Raymond
  • Kemanian, Armen R.
  • Kersebaum, K. Christian
  • Kim, Soo-Hyung
  • Kumar, Naresh S.
  • Makowski, David
  • Mueller, Christoph
  • Nendel, Claas
  • Priesack, Eckart
  • Pravia, Maria Virginia
  • Sau, Federico
  • Shcherbak, Iurii
  • Tao, Fulu
  • Teixeira, Edmar
  • Timlin, Dennis
  • Waha, Katharina
Source
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY Volume: 20 Issue: 7 Pages: 2301-2320 Published: 2014
ISSN
1354-1013 eISSN: 1365-2486
Abstract

Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly -0.5 Mg ha(-1) per degrees C. Doubling [CO2] from 360 to 720 mu mol mol(-1) increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information.

Author Keyword(s)
  • [CO2]
  • AgMIP
  • climate
  • maize
  • model intercomparison
  • simulation
  • temperature
  • uncertainty
KeyWord(s) Plus
  • WATER-USE EFFICIENCY
  • AIR CO2 ENRICHMENT
  • SIMULATION-MODEL
  • ELEVATED CO2
  • SYSTEMS SIMULATION
  • NITROGEN DYNAMICS
  • CARBON-DIOXIDE
  • YIELD
  • WHEAT
  • AGRICULTURE
ESI Discipline(s)
  • Environment/Ecology
Web of Science Category(ies)
  • Biodiversity Conservation
  • Ecology
  • Environmental Sciences
Adress(es)

[Bassu, Simona; Brisson, Nadine; Makowski, David] INRA AgroParisTech, Unite Agron, F-78850 Thiverval Grignon, France; [Durand, Jean-Louis] INRA, Unite Rech Pluridisciplinaire Prairie & Plantes F, F-86600 Lusignan, France; [Boote, Kenneth] Univ Florida, Dept Agron, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA; [Lizaso, Jon; Sau, Federico] Univ Politecn Madrid, Dept Prod Vegetal, E-28040 Madrid, Spain; [Jones, James W.] Univ Florida, Dept Agr & Biol Engn, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA; [Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C.] NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, Climate Impacts Grp, New York, NY 10025 USA; [Adam, Myriam] CIRAD, UMR AGAP PAM, Montpellier, France; [Baron, Christian] CIRAD, UMR TETIS, F-34093 Montpellier, France; [Basso, Bruno; Shcherbak, Iurii] Michigan State Univ, Dept Geol Sci, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA; [Basso, Bruno; Shcherbak, Iurii] Univ Basilicata, Dept Crop Syst Forestry & Environm Sci, I-85100 Potenza, Italy; [Biernath, Christian; Priesack, Eckart] Helmholtz Zentrum Munchen, Inst Bodenokol, D-85764 Neuherberg, Germany; [Boogaard, Hendrik; Hoek, Steven] Alterra, Ctr Geoinformat, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands; [Conijn, Sjaak; Jongschaap, Raymond] Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, WUR Plant Res Int, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands; [Corbeels, Marc] CIRAD Annual Cropping Syst, BR-73310970 Planaltina, DF, Brazil; [Deryng, Delphine] Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England; [Deryng, Delphine] Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England; [De Sanctis, Giacomo] INRA, Unite AGROCLIM, F-84914 Avignon 9, France; [Gayler, Sebastian] Univ Tubingen, Water & Earth Syst Sci WESS Competence Cluster, D-72074 Tubingen, Germany; [Grassini, Patricio] Univ Nebraska, Dept Agron & Hort, Lincoln, NE 68503 USA; [Hatfield, Jerry] USDA ARS, Natl Soil Tilth Lab Agr & Environm, Ames, IA 50011 USA; [Izaurralde, Cesar] Pacific NW Natl Lab, College Pk, MD 20740 USA; [Izaurralde, Cesar] Univ Maryland, College Pk, MD 20740 USA; [Kemanian, Armen R.; Pravia, Maria Virginia] Penn State Univ, Dept Plant Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; [Kersebaum, K. Christian; Nendel, Claas] Leibniz Ctr Agr Landscape Res, ZALF, Inst Landscape Syst Anal, D-15374 Muencheberg, Germany; [Kim, Soo-Hyung] Univ Washington, Sch Environm & Forest Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA; [Kumar, Naresh S.; Waha, Katharina] Indian Agr Res Inst, Ctr Environm Sci & Climate Resilient Agr, New Delhi 110012, India; [Mueller, Christoph] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany; [Tao, Fulu] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; [Teixeira, Edmar] New Zealand Inst Plant & Food Res Ltd, Sustainable Prod, Canterbury, New Zealand; [Timlin, Dennis] USDA ARS, Crop Syst & Global Change Lab, Beltsville, MD 20705 USA

Reprint Adress

Durand, JL (reprint author), INRA, Unite Rech Pluridisciplinaire Prairie & Plantes F, BP 80006, F-86600 Lusignan, France.

Country(ies)
  • Brazil
  • France
  • Germany
  • India
  • Italy
  • Netherlands
  • New Zealand
  • People's Republic of China
  • Spain
  • United Kingdom
  • United States
CNRS - Adress(es)
    Accession Number
    WOS:000337680700025
    uid:/10W8VVQ8
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